Understanding Inflation and How It Impacts Your Investments

Investors across the globe are concerned about inflation due to fluctuating markets and continuing political unrest both at home and abroad. At a time like this, it is critical that investors understand how inflation impacts the economy and their assets.

Inflation takes place in every country, not just those countries experiencing political dissension, market challenges, poverty, and crime. Developed markets are not exempt from currency risks that lead to economic downturns.

As you know, inflation is a sustained (inflated) price increase that leads to a fall in the purchasing power of the dollar, this is generally due to excess demand and supply issues, and may trigger other economic or market events.

Inflation is primarily measured by the consumer price index (CPI), which is based on the rate that prices increase for household goods and services consumed. The CPI omits specific non-applicable spending for items like energy prices that are impacted by factors outside consumer control; those that do not directly impact inflation.

When inflation rises—consumers may purchase fewer goods, prices may go up, and profits may go down. As a result, the economy slows down and becomes less stable than average. There is no question; inflation has a concerning impact on your investments.

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Inflationary Impact on Bonds

When it comes to investment bonds prices, inflation generally has the most impact. Heightened increase generates higher yields, which in turn leads to lower bond prices. Then inflation negatively impacts the value at maturity or the principal payment.

The impact on bonds is visible in nominal versus real returns. For example, nominal returns are “actual” yields. Real returns, on the other hand, represent inflation-adjusted yields that are paid to lenders by borrowers. As inflation compounds with time, these sums add up and adversely impact investors.

International investors are concerned about sovereign debt—the money or credit owned by a government to its creditors, according to Justin Kuepper, the author at the balance. Inflation, in this case, impacts not only bonds but also securities and bills with short-duration maturity dates. Sovereign debts may also include long-duration contracts such as pensions, services, entitlement programs, and more.

Inflationary Impact on Stocks

When interest rates hike, and companies raise their prices, investors become concerned about their financial portfolios. Stocks are generally a good hedge against inflation since company revenues can show growth at the same rate as inflation. However, investors may overpay for stocks. If companies raise prices during a boom, global sellers find it difficult to remain competitive since foreign producing companies may not need to raise their rates. Inflation means most are paying more and receiving less. Financials are overstated due to inflation.

Some economists believe that inflation of 1-3% offers a substantial return in stocks, and others believe inflation of 6% or more produces negative returns for stocks. In any case, it is difficult to determine real cause and effect analysis. Most agree that out-of-control inflation results in a lower return on equities.

What Happens When Inflationary Prices Go Back Down?

When prices go back down after inflation so do the inflated revenues, making it difficult to assess value, the primary tool by the Federal Reserve for fighting inflation is to apply short-term interest rates.  If money costs more to borrow, the Federal Reserve can remove some excess capital from the market and thus slow the price increase cycle. The goal is to reach lower, controlled inflation in which employment can increase, consumers have more to spend, and the economy grows. In most scenarios, this approach is not always easy to assess or to achieve.

Hedge Your Financial Portfolio With Precious Metals

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There are many ways in which investors prepare for inflation. It is critical to reducing risks, and one of the most attractive ways to hedge your financial portfolio is with substantial assets such as precious metals. By investing in non-inflationary security such as gold or silver, investors weather the storm of economic downturns. Gold bullion, a gold-backed individual retirement account (IRA) or silver are some of the most sought-after securities in a market such as the one the US and national economies are facing.

The question is, should investors be concerned about today’s inflationary threats when it comes to their investments? A diversified financial portfolio is one that is planned to withstand uncertain times in which inflation is imminent. Gold and silver monetary assets are the answers.

Keep in mind; inflation destroys purchasing power. Whether your financial future is well balanced or you are a retiree on a fixed income, you need secure assets to withstand whatever the market bears. With a diversified portfolio that includes stocks, bonds, and tangible precious metals to hedge against inflation, you take a step in protecting your assets and those of your family for the future.

Cash assets are always recommended, but inflation works against this type of fiat money. Consider that an item valued at a specific dollar amount will be worth less after a period of inflation. A purchase in gold or silver is a substantial addition to any portfolio and one that is stable and free from government regulations. Hedge yourself from inflation now by purchasing protected security in precious metals. Invest in gold or silver today. You may not want to wait until another round of recession

Learn how a Gold, Silver, & Precious Metals IRA can help you hedge against inflation

Trump’s Golden Age and Your Golden Years

As Donald Trump prepares to assume office for a second term, his vision of a “new American golden age” has sparked considerable debate about the future of the economy and financial markets. For investors, particularly those interested in precious metals like gold and silver, this moment represents both opportunities and questions. What happened to the price of gold during Trump’s first administration, and what might his second term mean for precious metals? 

Gold in the First Trump Administration: A Look Back 

Gold prices experienced notable movements during Trump’s first term (2017–2021), reflecting both domestic and global economic trends. 

Economic Growth and Tax Cuts (2017-2018): 
Trump’s first term began with a focus on economic growth, fueled by significant corporate tax cuts and deregulation. 
Gold prices remained relatively stable during this period, averaging around $1,200–$1,300 per ounce, as strong stock market performance diverted investor attention from safe-haven assets. 
Trade Wars and Market Volatility (2018-2019): 
The U.S.-China trade war caused market uncertainty, boosting gold prices as investors sought safety. 
By mid-2019, gold had surged past $1,500 per ounce, reflecting heightened fears of global economic slowdowns and fluctuating U.S. dollar strength. 
The COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): 
The pandemic triggered massive economic stimulus measures, including record-low interest rates and unprecedented money printing by central banks. 
Gold prices reached an all-time high of $2,070 per ounce in August 2020 as investors flocked to hard assets to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
 

Trump 2.0: What Could It Mean for Precious Metals? 

Trump’s second term could usher in new economic policies and challenges that may impact the price of gold and silver. Here’s what to watch: 

Geopolitical Uncertainty: 
Trump’s “America First” policies, including potential trade disputes and a focus on reducing U.S. reliance on foreign supply chains, could create market volatility, driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold. 
Inflation Concerns: 
If Trump prioritizes economic stimulus and infrastructure spending, inflation fears may rise, further enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge against the eroding value of the dollar. 
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): 
Discussions about launching a U.S. CBDC could spark debates about financial privacy and control, pushing investors toward tangible, private assets like gold and silver. 
Interest Rates and Monetary Policy: 
Trump has historically favored low interest rates to support economic growth. A continuation of this stance could weaken the dollar, making gold and silver more attractive. 

 
Why Precious Metals Remain Relevant 

Gold and silver have long been considered stores of value, particularly during times of economic uncertainty. As Trump declares the dawn of a “new American golden age,” savvy investors may view precious metals as a hedge against the very volatility that such bold declarations can create. 

Key Reasons to Consider Precious Metals Now: 

Wealth Preservation: Gold and silver protect purchasing power in the face of inflation. 
Safe Haven: Precious metals thrive during geopolitical tensions and market instability. 
Portfolio Diversification: Adding gold and silver reduces overall portfolio risk. 

 

Conclusion: A Golden Opportunity Awaits 

While Trump’s second term promises bold initiatives, it also introduces potential risks to the economy. Whether through trade disputes, inflationary pressures, or shifts in monetary policy, the factors influencing gold and silver prices are poised to remain active. 

For investors, the “Trump 2.0” era represents an opportunity to safeguard wealth and capitalize on market uncertainties by turning to precious metals. As we navigate this “new American golden age,” gold and silver may once again prove why they’ve stood the test of time as the ultimate safe havens. 

Start your journey toward financial security today. Explore the timeless value of gold and silver and fortify your portfolio for the opportunities ahead. 

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Inflation Watch: A Mixed Bag but Bullish on Gold

As we navigate through the economic landscape of early 2025, one trend stands out with a shimmering allure: gold. Amidst the complexities of inflation, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating market dynamics, gold has not only held its ground but has significantly appreciated, presenting a compelling case for investment.

Recent economic data paints a picture of inflation that’s both cooling and heating in different sectors. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2024 came in below expectations at a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, suggesting a slowdown in inflation at the producer level. However, specific sectors like airfares have seen significant price hikes, indicating that inflation pressures persist in certain areas.

On the global stage, India’s retail inflation hit a four-month low, yet wholesale inflation rose, showcasing the divergent paths inflation can take based on local economic conditions. This mixed signal on inflation globally underscores the unpredictability of traditional investments, highlighting gold’s role as a hedge against such uncertainties.

Gold’s Unprecedented Performance

Gold has been breaking records and defying traditional market correlations. Despite strong U.S. dollar indicators and rising treasury yields, which typically would push gold prices down, gold has surged past $2700 per ounce. This resilience is not just a blip; it’s backed by significant buying from central banks and investors looking for stability amidst global uncertainties.

The metal’s performance in 2024, where it maintained a positive correlation with the S&P 500 for 91% of the time, marks a departure from its usual inverse relationship with stocks. This anomaly, coupled with gold’s significant outperformance against global government bonds since 2008, suggests that markets no longer trust all the “good” news, and in fact see past the headlines to the symptoms of froth in the markets.

Many institutional investors are not reassured by high stock prices but instead see a dangerous bubble and are divesting into cash.

Gold is a part of that strategy. Gold is no longer just a safe haven but a strategic asset in an investor’s portfolio.

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The Tale of the Declining Dollar – Told in 6 Eye-Opening Charts (Part 1)

It may seem counter-intuitive. It may seem impossible to imagine or hyperbolic. The dollar has been there your whole life and all that time, it has been solid – more or less, apart from a few stretches of deep inflation. It is the world’s reserve currency. The money on which international trade is based. The petrodollar makes the world go round, in many ways. You may have a sense deep in your bones that because the dollar has always been there, it will always be there.

But you know the rule of thumb in finance: past performance is no guarantee of future returns. That applies to all assets, no exceptions. Not even the US dollar.

SHOULD you have all your assets in dollar denominated investments? Or should you diversify just in case?

No hysterics here.

We are going to calmly and rationally walk you through 6 charts that demonstrate factually and logically why NOW is the time for gold precisely because the future is not guaranteed for the dollar, and in fact, using simple math you can clearly see there is not only trouble ahead; there is trouble right now.

We’ll start with the first 2 this week. Watch your inbox for the next 2 next week.

1. US Public debt

Exploding Debt Undermining Our Financial Foundation

What could possibly go wrong with debt to infinity?

At the root of all this is the public debt. It has only escalated and exploded since Ronald Reagan called attention to it in the 1980’s. Lately, the dollar has been severely abused by the emergence of Modern Monetary Theory, which states (in a nutshell) that if a country runs its own printing press, it can spend as much money as it wants to, issue all the debt it needs, paper over the debt with more currency, and then tax away the inflation. Academics and economists who seriously believe this have seized the levers of power.

What could possibly go wrong? (Everything…)

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2. Gold Price CAGR

Other Assets Limp Along. Gold Gallops!

Your gains are not as impressive as they could be…

Let’s compare gold to the broader economy by looking at compound annual growth rates (CAGR). Here you can see year to date commodities gaining just 6% to gold’s monster 31% growth! More than double the aggressive emerging markets’ gains of 13%!

Just to demonstrate that this is not a 1 year anomaly, look at the 10 year compound annual growth rate and you will still see gold beating every other category at 8.29%, while the US treasury index actually shrinks!

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To be continued…

Gold’s price is determined by the spot price, which represents its current market value for immediate delivery. This spot price is influenced by trading activity on major global exchanges like the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and COMEX in New York. The LBMA sets the gold price twice daily at 10:30 AM and 3:00 PM GMT, establishing benchmarks based on global supply and demand. Platinum and palladium prices are similarly set by the London Platinum and Palladium Market. Futures markets also play a critical role in determining spot prices, as these contracts, which commit to buying or selling precious metals at a future date, heavily influence daily market values.

Precious metal prices are dynamic, often changing multiple times per minute during active trading hours. They fluctuate based on a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, economic indicators like inflation rates, and the strength of the U.S. dollar, as these metals are priced in dollars globally. Additionally, market activity occurs nearly 24 hours a day due to the overlapping of trading in Asia, Europe, and North America. Markets typically pause late Friday and reopen Sunday evening U.S. time, providing a short break in the otherwise continuous trading cycle.

Prices also respond to specific triggers. Limited mining production can drive prices higher, while abundant supply may reduce them. Economic uncertainty, such as during periods of inflation or geopolitical instability, often increases demand for precious metals as they are sought out as safe havens. A weaker U.S. dollar tends to raise prices, as more dollars are required to purchase the same amount of metal. Conversely, higher interest rates may reduce the appeal of metals, as they do not generate income or dividends.
For consumers considering physical bullion, it’s important to note the difference between spot prices and retail prices. When purchasing coins or bars, buyers typically pay a premium over the spot price. These premiums cover costs like manufacturing, distribution, dealer markups, shipping, and insurance. Additionally, owning physical bullion requires secure storage. Options range from home safes and bank safety deposit boxes to professional vaults offered by many dealers. Gold and silver are the most liquid precious metals, making them easier to sell quickly, whereas platinum and palladium are more closely tied to industrial demand and can be less predictable in value.
Tax implications should also be considered, as profits from selling precious metals may be subject to capital gains taxes. It’s wise to consult with a financial advisor to understand tax obligations and plan accordingly. Buying physical gold for retirement security offers significant benefits, particularly as a hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. Gold has been a stable store of value for centuries, and its ability to diversify investment portfolios makes it an attractive option during periods of economic uncertainty. Silver, platinum, and palladium can complement gold investments, though their value is often more volatile due to industrial uses.
Understanding how gold and other precious metals are priced, when markets operate, and the factors influencing value can empower you to make more informed decisions. The price of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium is controlled by global markets, influenced by supply and demand, and subject to constant fluctuations. If you’re considering physical gold bullion for retirement security, focus on understanding the spot price, premiums, and storage options. Diversifying with gold can provide a hedge against inflation and economic instability, offering peace of mind for your financial future.

With this knowledge, you’re better equipped to navigate the precious metals market and make confident investment decisions. With proper planning and knowledge, investing in physical bullion can provide peace of mind and stability for those seeking to secure their financial future during retirement.

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