The Federal Reserve Impacts America

In June of 2020, The Federal Reserve (aka the central banks) decided to hold interest rates at near-zero and likely keep rates lowered through 2022 in support of the post-COVID-19 economic recovery. The benchmark rate today is 0%-0.25% (compared to 2.50% a year ago). This news, coupled with May’s unexpected decline in the unemployment rate to 13.3% even amidst the virus aftermath is enough for workers, shareholders, and investors alike to relax a little while working toward a full recovery. In a recent video segment entitled “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to reporters on central bank’s latest decision,” even while there is still much unrest and uncertainty about the timeline for our economic comeback due to the pandemic, the Chairman shared a great deal of hope. His positive outlook on jobs, the economy, and the state of the country were reassuring.

iStock 172983587 iStock 1219727836 iStock 1219430193 iStock 655781780

The Realities of Our Current Economy

There is certainly no doubt that the pandemic (and media coverage thereof) has impacted the lives of every American and nearly everyone in the world. We are all quite aware of the most significant economic hits. Chairman Powell admitted that the pandemic outbreak was similar in many ways to a natural disaster. He stated that this setback is, in fact, the “biggest economic shock in the US and the world ever. In two months we went from the lowest level of unemployment to the highest level of unemployment in 50 years.” He shared these impacts:

  • Indicators of inflation and degrees of uncertainty based on virus containment
  • A decline in economic activity that has added to job losses
  • Nearly 40 million jobs lost, with a record rise in unemployment
  • The virus impacted industries that involve tight groups of people in the service economy

Even given these realities and the fact that “a full recovery is a way out,” Chairman Powell agrees that the economy was in an excellent position to begin with and take such a hit. The Fed has positive goals to help the US economy recover.

iStock 1219727836

The Goal of The Fed

Chairman Powell spoke a great deal about The Federal Reserve’s mission and goals for our country in such a time of crisis. While he agrees the US and world economies have suffered greatly, The Fed has tools to weather this type of unexpected disaster. The message is clear. The Federal Reserve is concerned about the well-being of the economy and the people of our nation. They are committed to using all of the tools possible for our nation to ensure:

  • Relief and stability
  • A recovery that is as strong as possible
  • Limit to lasting damage
  • Lowered interest rate (0%-0.25%) that is expected to remain low
  • Improvement to our gross domestic product (GDP)
  • An inflation rate that remains below the 2% objective
  • Maximum employment
  • Stable prices for Americans
  • Promotion of our financial system

The Fed has “listened” in order to create change to help as needed. They “lowered minimum loan sizes and increased maximum loan sizes – lengthened the maturity and stretched out the repayment schedule; borrowers will get a two-year delay before a principal payment is due along with a one-year delay on interest payments.” As the nation faces much unrest and several social and equality concerns, the fact is The Fed is objectively supportive of the nation, the people, and the world. Chairman Powell indicated, “there is no place for racism anywhere.” All of these assurances bring comfort to many.

A Word About the Stimulus Program

The Chairman said, “The government has been large, fast and forceful.” He believes our pre-existing healthy economy, financial system, and 50-year low unemployment rate have positioned the country well for re-opening and the building of momentum and job growth over time. In terms of the $3 trillion stimulus program, he believes “households, laid-off workers, small, medium and large businesses, hospitals, and state and local governments” benefitted and that the paycheck protection program (PPP) and unemployment benefits have been very innovative. These, coupled with the Fed’s innovations, are ALL making a difference.

iStock 1219430193

A Hopeful Message for Our US Economy

Chairman Powell expressed a positive outlook for our economy based on several recent signs of stabilization since the outbreak of the pandemic in January 2020:

  • People going back to work following social distancing protocols
  • Businesses re-opening using new guidelines to protect customers and staff
  • Stimulus payments and unemployment benefits that seem to be helping
  • Inflation is below the 2% objective (weak demand hold down consumer prices)
  • Pleasant lending climate going forward

The Federal Reserve monetary policy “is equipped to support the economy.” They continue to study yield-curve control, gain a better understanding of the economy’s trajectory, and streamline how best to deploy tools toward economic goals. Even though the expectation is that we have months, if not years, to recover fully, The Fed believes the economy is re-opening. They “want the markets to be working,” and they “want to get the labor market back.”

Good News for Continued Investments

iStock 655781780

Now is the time to HEDGE, HEDGE, HEDGE! In this present time of uncertainty in which the value of the US dollar could plummet, some of the world’s smartest investors hedge their portfolios with physical gold and silver. This move helps them maintain purchasing power. When the dollar is at high risk, the central banks quietly increase their withholdings of physical gold on a daily, weekly, monthly, and annual basis. This strategy begs the question, “Why are you not doing the same?” With interest rates are at an all-time low, it means the US dollar is weakened. This creates an inverse (negative) relationship between currencies compared to the higher values of gold and silver. This alternative currency in the form of gold and silver is not printed but rather “organically” grown and mined out of the earth with minimal volume. Currently, the precious metal supply cannot cover today’s demand. Therefore, premiums are increasing rapidly due to shortages. Contact Reagan Gold Group today. Discover your options while this legal tender currency in the form of gold and silver is still available and before premiums increase or supply runs out.

Learn how a Gold, Silver, & Precious Metals IRA can help you hedge against inflation

Trump’s Golden Age and Your Golden Years

As Donald Trump prepares to assume office for a second term, his vision of a “new American golden age” has sparked considerable debate about the future of the economy and financial markets. For investors, particularly those interested in precious metals like gold and silver, this moment represents both opportunities and questions. What happened to the price of gold during Trump’s first administration, and what might his second term mean for precious metals? 

Gold in the First Trump Administration: A Look Back 

Gold prices experienced notable movements during Trump’s first term (2017–2021), reflecting both domestic and global economic trends. 

Economic Growth and Tax Cuts (2017-2018): 
Trump’s first term began with a focus on economic growth, fueled by significant corporate tax cuts and deregulation. 
Gold prices remained relatively stable during this period, averaging around $1,200–$1,300 per ounce, as strong stock market performance diverted investor attention from safe-haven assets. 
Trade Wars and Market Volatility (2018-2019): 
The U.S.-China trade war caused market uncertainty, boosting gold prices as investors sought safety. 
By mid-2019, gold had surged past $1,500 per ounce, reflecting heightened fears of global economic slowdowns and fluctuating U.S. dollar strength. 
The COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): 
The pandemic triggered massive economic stimulus measures, including record-low interest rates and unprecedented money printing by central banks. 
Gold prices reached an all-time high of $2,070 per ounce in August 2020 as investors flocked to hard assets to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
 

Trump 2.0: What Could It Mean for Precious Metals? 

Trump’s second term could usher in new economic policies and challenges that may impact the price of gold and silver. Here’s what to watch: 

Geopolitical Uncertainty: 
Trump’s “America First” policies, including potential trade disputes and a focus on reducing U.S. reliance on foreign supply chains, could create market volatility, driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold. 
Inflation Concerns: 
If Trump prioritizes economic stimulus and infrastructure spending, inflation fears may rise, further enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge against the eroding value of the dollar. 
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): 
Discussions about launching a U.S. CBDC could spark debates about financial privacy and control, pushing investors toward tangible, private assets like gold and silver. 
Interest Rates and Monetary Policy: 
Trump has historically favored low interest rates to support economic growth. A continuation of this stance could weaken the dollar, making gold and silver more attractive. 

 
Why Precious Metals Remain Relevant 

Gold and silver have long been considered stores of value, particularly during times of economic uncertainty. As Trump declares the dawn of a “new American golden age,” savvy investors may view precious metals as a hedge against the very volatility that such bold declarations can create. 

Key Reasons to Consider Precious Metals Now: 

Wealth Preservation: Gold and silver protect purchasing power in the face of inflation. 
Safe Haven: Precious metals thrive during geopolitical tensions and market instability. 
Portfolio Diversification: Adding gold and silver reduces overall portfolio risk. 

 

Conclusion: A Golden Opportunity Awaits 

While Trump’s second term promises bold initiatives, it also introduces potential risks to the economy. Whether through trade disputes, inflationary pressures, or shifts in monetary policy, the factors influencing gold and silver prices are poised to remain active. 

For investors, the “Trump 2.0” era represents an opportunity to safeguard wealth and capitalize on market uncertainties by turning to precious metals. As we navigate this “new American golden age,” gold and silver may once again prove why they’ve stood the test of time as the ultimate safe havens. 

Start your journey toward financial security today. Explore the timeless value of gold and silver and fortify your portfolio for the opportunities ahead. 

Read More

Inflation Watch: A Mixed Bag but Bullish on Gold

As we navigate through the economic landscape of early 2025, one trend stands out with a shimmering allure: gold. Amidst the complexities of inflation, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating market dynamics, gold has not only held its ground but has significantly appreciated, presenting a compelling case for investment.

Recent economic data paints a picture of inflation that’s both cooling and heating in different sectors. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2024 came in below expectations at a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, suggesting a slowdown in inflation at the producer level. However, specific sectors like airfares have seen significant price hikes, indicating that inflation pressures persist in certain areas.

On the global stage, India’s retail inflation hit a four-month low, yet wholesale inflation rose, showcasing the divergent paths inflation can take based on local economic conditions. This mixed signal on inflation globally underscores the unpredictability of traditional investments, highlighting gold’s role as a hedge against such uncertainties.

Gold’s Unprecedented Performance

Gold has been breaking records and defying traditional market correlations. Despite strong U.S. dollar indicators and rising treasury yields, which typically would push gold prices down, gold has surged past $2700 per ounce. This resilience is not just a blip; it’s backed by significant buying from central banks and investors looking for stability amidst global uncertainties.

The metal’s performance in 2024, where it maintained a positive correlation with the S&P 500 for 91% of the time, marks a departure from its usual inverse relationship with stocks. This anomaly, coupled with gold’s significant outperformance against global government bonds since 2008, suggests that markets no longer trust all the “good” news, and in fact see past the headlines to the symptoms of froth in the markets.

Many institutional investors are not reassured by high stock prices but instead see a dangerous bubble and are divesting into cash.

Gold is a part of that strategy. Gold is no longer just a safe haven but a strategic asset in an investor’s portfolio.

Read More

The Tale of the Declining Dollar – Told in 6 Eye-Opening Charts (Part 1)

It may seem counter-intuitive. It may seem impossible to imagine or hyperbolic. The dollar has been there your whole life and all that time, it has been solid – more or less, apart from a few stretches of deep inflation. It is the world’s reserve currency. The money on which international trade is based. The petrodollar makes the world go round, in many ways. You may have a sense deep in your bones that because the dollar has always been there, it will always be there.

But you know the rule of thumb in finance: past performance is no guarantee of future returns. That applies to all assets, no exceptions. Not even the US dollar.

SHOULD you have all your assets in dollar denominated investments? Or should you diversify just in case?

No hysterics here.

We are going to calmly and rationally walk you through 6 charts that demonstrate factually and logically why NOW is the time for gold precisely because the future is not guaranteed for the dollar, and in fact, using simple math you can clearly see there is not only trouble ahead; there is trouble right now.

We’ll start with the first 2 this week. Watch your inbox for the next 2 next week.

1. US Public debt

Exploding Debt Undermining Our Financial Foundation

What could possibly go wrong with debt to infinity?

At the root of all this is the public debt. It has only escalated and exploded since Ronald Reagan called attention to it in the 1980’s. Lately, the dollar has been severely abused by the emergence of Modern Monetary Theory, which states (in a nutshell) that if a country runs its own printing press, it can spend as much money as it wants to, issue all the debt it needs, paper over the debt with more currency, and then tax away the inflation. Academics and economists who seriously believe this have seized the levers of power.

What could possibly go wrong? (Everything…)

A graph of columns and a chart of debt

Description automatically generated

2. Gold Price CAGR

Other Assets Limp Along. Gold Gallops!

Your gains are not as impressive as they could be…

Let’s compare gold to the broader economy by looking at compound annual growth rates (CAGR). Here you can see year to date commodities gaining just 6% to gold’s monster 31% growth! More than double the aggressive emerging markets’ gains of 13%!

Just to demonstrate that this is not a 1 year anomaly, look at the 10 year compound annual growth rate and you will still see gold beating every other category at 8.29%, while the US treasury index actually shrinks!

A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated

To be continued…

Gold’s price is determined by the spot price, which represents its current market value for immediate delivery. This spot price is influenced by trading activity on major global exchanges like the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and COMEX in New York. The LBMA sets the gold price twice daily at 10:30 AM and 3:00 PM GMT, establishing benchmarks based on global supply and demand. Platinum and palladium prices are similarly set by the London Platinum and Palladium Market. Futures markets also play a critical role in determining spot prices, as these contracts, which commit to buying or selling precious metals at a future date, heavily influence daily market values.

Precious metal prices are dynamic, often changing multiple times per minute during active trading hours. They fluctuate based on a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, economic indicators like inflation rates, and the strength of the U.S. dollar, as these metals are priced in dollars globally. Additionally, market activity occurs nearly 24 hours a day due to the overlapping of trading in Asia, Europe, and North America. Markets typically pause late Friday and reopen Sunday evening U.S. time, providing a short break in the otherwise continuous trading cycle.

Prices also respond to specific triggers. Limited mining production can drive prices higher, while abundant supply may reduce them. Economic uncertainty, such as during periods of inflation or geopolitical instability, often increases demand for precious metals as they are sought out as safe havens. A weaker U.S. dollar tends to raise prices, as more dollars are required to purchase the same amount of metal. Conversely, higher interest rates may reduce the appeal of metals, as they do not generate income or dividends.
For consumers considering physical bullion, it’s important to note the difference between spot prices and retail prices. When purchasing coins or bars, buyers typically pay a premium over the spot price. These premiums cover costs like manufacturing, distribution, dealer markups, shipping, and insurance. Additionally, owning physical bullion requires secure storage. Options range from home safes and bank safety deposit boxes to professional vaults offered by many dealers. Gold and silver are the most liquid precious metals, making them easier to sell quickly, whereas platinum and palladium are more closely tied to industrial demand and can be less predictable in value.
Tax implications should also be considered, as profits from selling precious metals may be subject to capital gains taxes. It’s wise to consult with a financial advisor to understand tax obligations and plan accordingly. Buying physical gold for retirement security offers significant benefits, particularly as a hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. Gold has been a stable store of value for centuries, and its ability to diversify investment portfolios makes it an attractive option during periods of economic uncertainty. Silver, platinum, and palladium can complement gold investments, though their value is often more volatile due to industrial uses.
Understanding how gold and other precious metals are priced, when markets operate, and the factors influencing value can empower you to make more informed decisions. The price of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium is controlled by global markets, influenced by supply and demand, and subject to constant fluctuations. If you’re considering physical gold bullion for retirement security, focus on understanding the spot price, premiums, and storage options. Diversifying with gold can provide a hedge against inflation and economic instability, offering peace of mind for your financial future.

With this knowledge, you’re better equipped to navigate the precious metals market and make confident investment decisions. With proper planning and knowledge, investing in physical bullion can provide peace of mind and stability for those seeking to secure their financial future during retirement.

Read More